With the Iranian revolution heading to its 100 days of protests, there are clear signs that there is no turning back. The wave of contestation of the mullah-lead regime and the extreme violence of the counter-reaction of the different layers of the establishment leaves no place for ´dialogue´ or ´reform´, as some interested voices of pundits and journalist may be trying to make believe.
That this will be the last winter under the cleric yoke it´s almost clear. December seems to be a bad months for dictators, and the former Romanian dictator whose last visit before being condemned to death for decades of crimes against his own people was Iran, experienced this on his own skin. What it largely unclear is what will be the next steps of this transformation? Will the perpetrators of the 43 years of dictatorship brought to justice? Would they be able to escape to sunnier lands? Would they eventually use the assets transferred through third outside the country and make a come-back as ´democratic´ participants to the inner competition for power within the incoming free regime?
Reading the notes of the Polish journalist Ryszard Kapuściński who chronicled the last months of the Shah and the instauration of the new clerics´ regime, one may notice a lot of similarities: a ruling elite, with the Shah on the top of it, living in complete denial about the real needs and aspirations of the people; the constant persecution and murder of intellectual elites; the active role of repression forces - like SAVAK - in maintaining the regime and violently discouraging of dissent; the widespread corruption and the large scale stealing of natural resources; the persistence of protests for month before the Shah - at last - and his family decided to leave the country.
There are also many more small differences that do distinguish one regime from the other, one being the desperate blindless of religious fanatics who may not spare anything to stay in power. There is no other danger for humanity than a religious fanatic in position of power. Hence, the refusal to leave the theatre with minimal decency. Also different is the deep hate those mullahs seem to have for the culture of the country they kept hostage.
Even when on the wrong side of history, Iran remains an important regional player and the changes taking place sooner or later within the country may send waves of change across the region. Time will show what kind of changes will be involved and especially who will be the agents of those changes.
